Base Case
€294M
IRR: 14.2% · TVPI: 1.6×
Current portfolio trajectory with planned exits in 24–36 months.
Top 2 Written to Zero
€155M
IRR: 6.8% · TVPI: 1.1×
Q-CTRL + Multiverse impaired. Remaining portfolio still TVPI positive.
30% NAV Haircut — All Cos.
€206M
IRR: 9.4% · TVPI: 1.3×
Broad market compression scenario. Fund still above invested capital.
Bear — All Exits at DPI 0.7×
€147M
IRR: 3.1% · TVPI: 0.9×
Extreme downside: all exits below cost. Unlikely but modelled.
EUR/USD -15% FX Shock
€276M
NAV impact: -€18M
USD-denominated assets (Q-CTRL, d-Matrix) partially hedged.
Bull — Early Exit at 2× NAV
€588M
IRR: 28.4% · TVPI: 2.8×
Optimal exit window 2025–2026. M&A multiples at cycle peak.